Copenhagen Blog

Posts Tagged ‘Climate Change’

Oceans Rise as Kyoto is Sidelined

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Green Turtle in South Florida.  Photo Courtesy Kim Mohlenhoff.

Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas) in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Photo courtesy Kim Mohlenhoff.

Copenhagen, Denmark. December 14 was Oceans Day at COP15!  It was also the day negotiations broke down (again) over the whole issue of whether parties will agree to parallel commitments under Kyoto and new commitments binding all countries participating in COP15 (recall that US is not a party to Kyoto).  So, several delegates from developing countries and small island states took solace in the relative calm of the all-day and in-to-the-evening science-to-policy-to-film and discussion oceans event at the European Environment Agency building in downtown Copenhagen.

One after another, delegates from the Solomon Islands, Monaco, Indonesia, South Africa, and Cape Verde reflected that the scientific presentations at Oceans Day were the best they’d ever seen.  The Center for Ocean Solutions was represented by professors Rob Dunbar and Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, who gave two stunningly clear presentations on ocean acidification and climate change impacts on tropical marine systems and human communities.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that the science isn’t getting through to the negotiating parties.  In the words of Representative Gordon Darcy Lilo, Minister of Environment, Conservation and Meteorology of the Solomon Islands, “the science has not been persuasive so far — that is why negotiations have not gone well in Copenhagen.”

After such a great day of very sobering, albeit excellent, science presentations, this is a hard pill to swallow.

The message is clear:  we have to do a better job of communicating and integrating science into policy decision making, which is exactly what the IPCC was and is designed to do.  So, why are we at this point now and what can we do about it?  The developing countries want and need their own scientific voice.  Not imported scientists, but their own.  Dr. Kwame Koranteng of the Fisheries Management and Conservation Service of the FAO/UN adamantly says developing countries need help with scientific capacity-building.  We should be exchanging our graduate students and post docs and supporting science education in developing countries.

- posted by Meg Caldwell, Executive Director, Center for Ocean Solutionsmeg

An Evening with “The Numbers”

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

P1000681.JPGThe life of a diplomat can be tough. It’s not all glitz and glamour—and you don’t always get to stand up at the podium making grand pronouncements of principle.

Copenhagen, Denmark. Shortly after 9 p.m. tonight (Dec 14th), a contact group of the AWG-KP—that’s Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol—gathered in the Hans Christian Andersen meeting room. As Prof. Schneider explains it, a contact group is formed when there’s a sticking point during the plenary (the main negotiating session), a particular issue that needs to be hashed out or clarified. Then all the interested countries dispatch representatives to work on crafting an understanding on that point, while the rest of the plenary moves on and discusses other issues on the agenda.

In our case, the representatives were there to discuss the emissions reductions that each country in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol would be willing to commit to, and then determine what those emissions reductions would add up to in aggregate. In short, it was about “the numbers.”

P1000701.JPGSounds like a sexy topic, right? You’d expect fireworks and grand-standing and denunciations as the debate heated up over who should commit and why and how much. Well, the session wasn’t the verbal sparring match we anticipated. For a couple of hours, we mostly stared at a projection of a table.

Two of the columns read:

- Quantified emissions limitation or reduction commitment (2008-2012) (percentage of base year)
- Quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment ([2013-2017][2013-2020]) percentage of base year or period

The brackets indicate that content inside is up for discussion. The contact group got underway, with various delegations making statements under the Powerpoint glow.

There was some discussion of inserting text: adding footnotes and qualifications; noting this issue or quibbling with that formulation; clarifications or caveats on how emissions reductions are supposed to work. I’m going to make up a phrase here—something like “temporary conditionalities and self-referencing anomalies” seemed to rule the day. Other delegations would object or want to further discuss what was being added to the document. It wasn’t long before the whole conference room turned to gentle droning, and observers and delegates alike started to drift.

At some point, members of the contact group realized that not much was getting done, because the key question of “how much” each country should commit to was still not answered.

Micronesia: It might be best to leave this. We are straying quite far from where we hope to be.

China: I doubt whether we are making progress and question if we should be here at this late hour, if all we are doing is repeating these old lines.

Since the discussion did not seem to be getting anywhere, the chair suggested that meeting in a “smaller group” as opposed to the wider “contact group” to try to work through some of the issues. She then fielded responses to this proposal. The session then spent the next hour discussing how to proceed (as opposed to the substance of the agenda.)

The process of diplomacy is sometimes … well, I’d venture *often* … like this. It seems a hard job to be a diplomat, especially when you’re dealing with minute details that will wear down your teeth (or in this case, deciding what exact procedure would be appropriate for you to begin wearing down your teeth).

Eric (right) surreptiously has his photo taken with Yu Qingtai (left), China's Special Representative for Climate Change Negotiations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Eric (right) surreptiously has his photo taken with Yu Qingtai (left), China's Special Representative for Climate Change Negotiations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

My friend Eric Yang Yi pointed out that this kind of working session is very much like 苦功 “hard work, hard labor.” The participants basically sit there, and go line by line, nitpicking the text, the exact phrasing of each line, mostly contesting the particular language in the document, though in some cases also raising points of principle, Phrasing probably has legal and political rammifications, which is why they do it, and it’s important work. (However, it seemed that a lot of these caveats and clarifications import long-standing arguments into the discussion, which is why some delegates felt like things were moving backwards). The verb Eric used in Chinese to describe the process is 磨, meaning “to grind.” It’s exactly like that: a wheelstone grinding against rocks, until the final product is polished—or at least in close enough shape to pass back to the larger plenary.

When we left, the contact group was still going, though delegates were visibly wilting, and some were showing their frustration. Clearly, they were very dedicated people, and as the Chinese delegation put it: “We’re willing to stay here all night, if we are making progress toward an agreement.” But many of them felt that they were simply spinning wheels without getting “the numbers” down.

I would have stayed longer to catch the end of the saga, but I didn’t want to miss the last Metro out of Bella Center. I was afraid there wouldn’t be any trains running after midnight.

- posted by Kevin Hsu, M.S. Candidate, Atmosphere/Energy Program
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Stanford University
http://copenhagentime.blogspot.com


(This entry is an impression of the proceedings of an AG-KWP contact group that took place on the evening of December 14, 2009 at the Fifteenth Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen, Denmark. While descriptions are faithful to what was observed from 9-11:50 p.m. from a particular individual’s vantage point, the author makes no claims of its accuracy as a reflection of the COP process or of AG-KWP contact groups in general. The author admits his limited experience in international negotiations, as this is his first COP and takes no responsibility for the emotional status of readers after reading this blog.)

The Belarussian delegate checks her e-mail while the contact group hums softly in the background.

The Belarussian delegate checks her e-mail while the contact group hums softly in the background.

The Islands Have Their Say

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Photo Courtesy SPREP

Photo Courtesy SPREP

Hearing from those directly impacted by climate change can help us recall what’s at stake

Copenhagen, Denmark. On Friday the 11th we were heading into a briefing for civil society by UNFCCC head Yvo de Boer, when I noticed a gaggle of cameras and a crowd of conference-goers gathering a short distance from the auditorium entrance. I slipped out of line, and as I edged closer, I realized AOSIS (Association of Small Island States, a bloc of 43 countries) was holding a press conference to lay out the group’s negotiating position.

Dessima Williams, Head AOSIS

Dessima Williams, Head AOSIS

In the wake of the uproar over Tuvalu’s proposals the previous day, here was another bold statement by island nations. The first speaker, Dessima Williams of Grenada and head of AOSIS, was quite articulate. She emphasized AOSIS are on the “very frontlines of the impacts of climate change.” Many have already suffered damage, and will be subject to greater impacts in the future.

Watching her, it really hit me: these people are fighting for their homes. With global warming and rising sea levels, whole communities might simply disappear under the waves. I had understood this conceptually, but to hear someone facing this prospect make such a calm, yet impassioned statement — when essentially everything is at stake — somehow let the story became real in a way it hadn’t been before. For them, it’s not merely an academic discussion of how many percent, from what base year, under what scenarios. It’s not a political question of “What’s acceptable to domestic audiences?” It’s a question of survival.

Key demands by AOSIS:

- Warming not above 1.5 degrees C from pre-industrial (in contrast to the the 2 degrees C that has been widely circulated by other proposals)

- This means stabilizing at 350 ppm, rather than 450 ppm, and will require much deeper cuts from developed countries.

- Significantly more funding for adaptation

- A legally-binding instrument. Though many have said only a political agreement is achievable next week, AOSIS wants the outcome to be legally binding.

In laying out their position, AOSIS asked for developed nations to shoulder their historical responsibilities and for the whole world to take appropriate action to stave off disaster. Williams noted that AOSIS countries would be doing their part: several nations will follow the example of the Maldives and pledge to go carbon neutral. Many more will implement renewable energy plans. Their message: We are doing our part. We did not even cause this problem, but we are doing right by the climate, and the rest of the countries need to follow. Otherwise, our homes, our livelihoods, our very way of life, are lost. They encouraged the throng of supporters (who carried “350 ppm” and “We support AOSIS” signs) to keep up the pressure.

Left to right:

Left to right: Selwin Hart of Barbados, AOSIS negotiator, Mohamed Aslam, Minister of the Environment for the Maldives, and Williams

The speakers were adamant that these were fundamental demands, but it remains unclear whether this action was meant to stake out an aggressive negotiating position to create space for a more favorable agreement, or if these are really make-it-or-break-it conditions. In any case, with 2 degrees of warming, some islands are still going under, and we’ll have populations, or even whole countries, that will be forced to migrate.

For us in the United States, a climate treaty usually calls to mind energy efficiency and renewables, cleaner technology and greener jobs—things that I wholeheartedly support and that many of us are willing to dedicate our careers to achieving. We see in a global agreement a catalyst to help renew American society and move it toward a more sustainable path.

But sometimes it’s good to hear from those who are first in the line of fire, whose lives are directly impacted by the challenges we face. It helps us to recall what’s at stake.

- posted by Kevin Hsu
M.S. Candidate, Atmosphere/Energy Program
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Stanford University

Negotiating Climate Policy 101

Monday, December 14th, 2009

How do the negotiations get resolved?

COP15 Negotiations.  Photo Courtesy UNFCCC

COP15 Negotiations. Photo Courtesy UNFCCC

National delegates arrive on-site with negotiating positions and instructions from their country governments.  Then thousands of observers accredited through a wide range of NGOs (including trade associations, environmental organizations, and research centers) try to influence those positions by lobbying thousands of national delegates on scores of issues.  Think tanks offer ideas for language that could move the negotiations ahead, and interest groups apply pressure to try to drive consensus toward their preferred outcome.

Observers also lobby each other as well to form loose coalitions and advance various interests.  In addition to the corridors, they operate through a continuous stream of concurrent side events to raise issues, make arguments, perform outreach, and build consensus:

In an effort to consolidate positions in the negotiations, the national delegates coordinate positions with one another by meeting regularly with members of their negotiating blocs, such as the G77 + China or the Umbrella Group.  The negotiators also organize drafting groups and bilateral meetings to try to resolve issues prior to formally facilitated negotiating sessions.

The professional negotiators will resolve as much as they can by a deadline early this week, and then all of their texts will be elevated to their superiors – most of whom are ministers of environment or senior foreign affairs officials.  In previous UNFCCC COPs (Conference of Parties), the ministers would work through the end of the week to try to resolve issues, and then the group would adopt decisions that reflected as much as they could support through the consensus process.

This year, the ministers have been engaging the negotiations throughout the year, with a feverish pace of political negotiations through the fall season.  Heads of State have also engaged the issues in multiple meetings this year, including the G8 and G20 meetings.  Now more than 100 heads of state have elected to join the proceedings, with most arriving on Thursday.  As a result, issues still unresolved by ministers could be elevated to heads of state, which is extraordinary for UNFCCC negotiations.

How can I keep up with the negotiations?

Thousands of journalists from every type of media outlet are on-site covering the proceedings, and the blogging and online broadcast productions are extensive.  However, access to most negotiating rooms is restricted to negotiators, which is one reason rumors in the corridors can quickly become news stories.  Other sources typically originate from a side events and press conferences organized by national delegations, NGO’s, and the UNFCCC Secretariat – all with different interests and angles.

To open access to the formal proceedings far and wide, the UNFCCC has made a major effort to webcast some of the major sessions live.  The sessions that are webcast are open to observers, and they typically involve formalities that mask some of the more direct negotiations happening in informal sessions that are closed to observers.  Nevertheless, I highly recommend tuning in to history this week!

Finally, IISD produces a summary of the many parallel channels of negotiation each day in a publication called Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

- posted by Alicia Thesing, Casewriter, Environmental and Natural Resources Law and Policy Program, Stanford University

Climate Scoreboard

Monday, December 14th, 2009

A new tool released by Climate Interactive, helps visualize the impact of the current proposed emission reductions.
From the Climate Interactive website: “The Climate Scoreboard uses the C-ROADS simulation to calculate the long-term climate impacts of proposals under consideration in the negotiations to produce a global climate treaty. Embedded Scoreboards automatically update as the deal improves. Watch the video (top right corner) for background and explanation of features. To see recent changes to the Scoreboard, click on the log link at right. “

Read more in Andrew Revkin’s Dec. 13th DOT EARTH post.

Youth of Copenhagen

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

Members of the China Youth Delegation exchange a blue marble.

Members of the China Youth Delegation exchange a blue marble.

Copenhagen, Denmark. One of the most remarkable elements of this UN meeting has been the preponderance of young people.  Everywhere you look, high school to college age youth are an active part of everything going on at COP15.  China even sent their first ever youth delegation to a UN meeting.  The enthusiasm, passion and energy expressed by these participants is infectious and has affected everyone in attendance.  And most encouraging is that these young people seem to fully understand that this is their world that they are inheriting, and they are accepting the responsibility with open arms.

Australia represent at COP15 from climateshifts on Vimeo.

- posted by Arlo Hemphill Arlo Hemphill

Buffered from the demonstrators, but protests are heard

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

As I sat inside the Bella Center, watching the thousands of people from around the world march just outside its walls on television screens, I found myself wondering if their voices could be heard inside the negotiations.  Sitting through an open plenary (which I finally gained access to after simply an hour of waiting in line) on the Kyoto Protocol, I believe at least some of the voices, like those of the climate justice demonstrations, were resonating in Plenary I.

This plenary was a major step forward in the negotiations.  On Friday, two draft texts were released for discussion, one for the Kyoto Protocol (KP) track and one for the long-term cooperative action (LCA) track.  The discussion that ensued showed a divide.  The major discussion revolved around the following question: Should KP continue, or should the parties integrate into one agreement, rather than follow two tracks?  The parties answers to these questions depend on their vision, economy, and stake in a strong outcome.

Kyoto is legally binding, yet only 2/3 of industrialized countries (Annex I) are party to it, and it does not require commitments of developing countries.  Under Kyoto, the 37 Annex I countries committed to reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an average of 5% by 2012.  However, since the Kyoto only covers 1/3 of global emissions, even if the targets were met by 2012, global emissions will still have gone up 30%.  Further, under Kyoto, Annex I parties are subject to review and auditing of their emission reductions, whereas non-Annex I parties are not subject to as rigorous a review process.  This might explain why some countries are eager to bring in the U.S. and China into legally binding commitments, because as some from the EU say – under Kyoto, we will not be able to meet the 2 degree Celsius target.

Many developing countries, on the other hand,  said that they “cannot contemplate any outcome without the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol.”

China said that “the world is watching whether the Annex I countries who created the problem of the global warming in the first place are are going to match their words with actions.”

Ecuador also chimed in to say “it is fundamental that now Annex I parties show real commitment and real actions.  People are dying, species, ecosystems, and even countries.  Want to stress it is not a matter of political will, it is a matter of social responsibility.  Then parties should assume real commitment, it is not only enough assuming commitment, it is also complying with the commitment.”

These countries are demanding that the Kyoto be extended to a second commitment period with strong action from Annex I countries.  It is the only legally binding framework under the UNFCCC at this time.

The session ended with a strong divide on how to move forward.  The draft texts are a start of more intense negotiations that will now progress mostly behind closed doors.  Meanwhile, we will wait for the Tuesday Plenary when the draft proposals will be brought before the entire COP…and hope that we gain entrance to the session.

- posted by Adina Abeles headshot

Clarity within the Storm

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

“I woke up this morning crying, and that’s not easy for a grown man to admit,” the representative of the tiny Pacific island of Tuvalu said, choking up as he addressed the plenary crowded with hundreds of delegates. “The fate of my country rests in your hands.” He argued passionately for strong and legally binding emission cuts as soon as possible, speaking for citizens of atolls and islands around the globe that could disappear in the next century from rising sea levels.

Low-lying atolls, many that support entire nations of people, are at risk of disappearing as sea level rise.  Pictured here are the Maldives, one such country at risk. Image courtesy NASA.

Low-lying atolls, many that support entire nations of people, are at risk of disappearing as sea level rises. Pictured here are the Maldives, one such country at risk. Image courtesy NASA.

While the first week of negotiations has drawn to a close in Copenhagen, the delegates of the 192 nations present will likely be up all weekend and late nights trying to hammer out a deal addressing global climate change. As a student in this bewildering maelstrom, I want to offer my perspectives on this conference so far by relating several stories and observations.

Judging from the media storm covering the event, it’s hard to get a clear picture of what happens here, even inside the conference as a participant. And of course, none of us in the Stanford delegation have much clue of what’s going on inside the closed negotiation rooms. Nonetheless, here are some of the shards of clarity that seem to be constructing themselves within the walls of this center that resonate.

Nothing will be simple. Attending all these side events, one thing is eminently clear – the world is a very complex place and similarly, addressing climate change spans endless facets of science, economics, ethics, politics, justice and law, just to name a few. Let me illustrate this. I wrote last time about the exciting talks I heard regarding a mechanism called REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). The theory is this – by providing economic incentives the developed world can help the developing world slow the rate of deforestation (~20-25% of global carbon emissions). This is a very cheap way of reducing emissions for both parties and it provides immense co-benefits of preserving biological diversity, maintaining valuable services such as air and water purification that the ecosystems provide to people, and helping these nations provide jobs and proceed along the path of economic development.

It’s an easy win-win situation, right? Not quite. I first went to a series of talks by Google, several Stanford scientists, and several non-governmental organizations talking about pilot projects and how REDD can be measured (no trivial task, I assure you – you have to be able to measure the amount of carbon in a tropical rainforest and be able to detect losses of the forest from satellite). But even if you can measure it, you still have to design the REDD framework (a political and logistical process, with plenty of economic and law analyses), finance it (an international negotiation and political fiasco), distribute the finances (dealing with weak capacity and sometimes corrupt governance in these countries), scale it across nations very quickly (business, engineering and organizational challenge), and then monitor the success. And even then, you’ve left out very critical ethical and moral dimensions involving indigenous people’s rights (who, understandably, don’t like being told what to do with their lands); thus, any REDD scheme has to involve local community input and participation. Compound that with growing global demand for cropland and food, timber, and other resources and you get my point. Implementing REDD is one of the areas that there is striking agreement among nations, but it is still not a simple nor guaranteed-to-succeed solution.

Tuvalucropped

Climate demonstrators express concern for tiny Tuvalu. Photo: Arlo Hemphill

We have shared ground. It’s easy to focus on disagreement and controversy. As frustrations mount this next week leading up to the conclusion of this conference, and as protestors and demonstrators make a show outside and in the city, it’s easy to lose the message in the windstorm. There are tough issues. There is immense urgency. No one will be 100% happy with what comes out of these agreements. But it has become immensely clear to me how much shared ground we have. I spent a summer on an atoll that, like Tuvalu, is in danger of disappearing forever within my lifetime. I was advised by a Stanford English Professor and poet to “go somewhere where something is about to disappear forever from the world.” I followed her advice and my life has never been the same since.

Opportunity for the future. I heard a fantastic talk by a person from a US consulting company emphasizing that the idea of addressing climate change is going to destroy economic prosperity is ridiculous. The point of the talk was that climate change policy is an immense opportunity to drive sustainable economic development for the US and the world. He cited a McKinsey & Co. report that found that replacing all fossil fuels in the US electricity generation industry with renewable energy would lead to a net increase in US jobs. He concluded his point by joking that perhaps we should ask the coal miners whether they would prefer to mine coal or not…

As far as an update on the actual negotiations, preliminary drafts of text have been released by the major negotiation parties, which is a major first step (according to a lead US negotiator that we were briefed by, this is amazingly early). A lot of the hardest things have not yet been negotiated, so a lot of work remains.

I like to think of it as a hurricane, a climate-change intensified gale-force storm, if you will. Each person, each organization, each blog post, each idea comprises a water droplet flying through the chaos. No one person can understand or navigate the storm, but it is gaining momentum. And the beauty is in the reflections of millions of water droplets and the crystalline images of the faces in the winds.

And let’s hope we address the storm before Tuvalu disappears.

A group of Stanford delegates meet at COP15

A group of Stanford delegates meet at COP15. Photo: Stephen Schneider

- posted by William R.L. Anderegg
william

Copenhagen Heats Up

Saturday, December 12th, 2009

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Copenhagen, Denmark. My Saturday morning began to the sound of sirens and tribal drums.  Awakened by the noise, I crept out onto the street to find dozens of protesters mobilizing in front of my hotel.  From there, I took a quick walk over to the train station, which at 9am was amass with humanity.  Many in the crowd were costumed, carrying banners or grouped into various color guards.  Teams of dread-locked youth darted about the station, slapping every surface in sight with decal stickers reading “System Change, Not Climate Change”.  The mass demonstrations in response to the UN Climate Change Meeting had begun.

Climate Justice demonstrators wave an image of President Obama

Climate Justice demonstrators wave an image of President Obama

The hoards of demonstrators congregating outside the Klimaforum (”The People’s Climate Conference”), just next to my hotel, were apparently just one of numerous organized demonstrations spread throughout the city today, paralyzing traffic and drawing a swarm of international media attention to what is happening here in Copenhagen.  There appears to be two primary streams of demonstration.  The first are international groups of activists, demanding climate justice – that the rich countries of the world live up to their responsibility in cleaning up the atmospheric mess that the demonstrators assert these nations have caused.  The other group of demonstrators are largely Danish citizens, upset by the right wing tendencies of their current administration and feeling alienated by and largely left out from the international conference that has taken over the city.

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As the demonstrations were blocking many major transportation arteries, getting to the Bella Center today was a challenge.  Although the gatherings we encountered on our way were generally peaceful, there have been growing reports of arrests, police raids and escalating chaos.   Meanwhile, those activists with access to the the UN Conference are demonstrating in their own way – via a candlelight vigil led by Nobel Laureate Desmond Tutu – inside the Bella Center.

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Demonstrators seek climate justice

Copenhagen it seems has ignited with ideological fervor.  Ground zero for our planet’s climate policy future, the public’s outcry to world governments has begun in earnest.10845_206397840758_100571955758_3639252_3389254_n

- posted by Arlo Hemphill Arlo Hemphill

Making the Case for Climate Change

Friday, December 11th, 2009

Copenhagen, Denmark. Stanford’s Dr. Stephen Schneider shares his views on why governments need to respond to climate change now.