Photo of G-77 coordinator Bernarditas Muller (C): UNFCCC/IISD
By dummies, yes, I mean me. There is so much going on at the Bella Center – ground zero for climate negotiations - that it is hard to find your way through the chaos. I seek the advice and help of seasoned COP-attendees who are often more than willing to guide me through the maze and figure out how to keep track of what is happening (even they say this is the likes of which they’ve never seen before). I’ll take a moment to try to explain.
COP15 is so large, it is entirely possible to completely miss all the negotiations happening at one end of the large conference center. The COP negotiations are following two tracks. The first track is AWG-KP, or Adhoc Working Group – Kyoto Protocol (yes, they have there own language here too, and it is more confusing than Danish) which works to implement the legally binding Kyoto Protocol. While the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change encourages parties to do something about climate change, the Kyoto Protocol commits them do so. AWG-KP keeps track of commitments through 2012, and negotiates the implementation of Kyoto post-2012. Now remember, the US never ratified Kyoto.
So there is another track – AWG-LCA (long-term cooperative action) that focuses on the overall implementation of the UNFCCC to determine how all parties, including the U.S., can implement and achieve the goals of the UNFCCC. In Bali, two years ago, the parties agreed to a two year roadmap culminating in an agreement in Copenhagen.
For each of these two tracks, there are many contact groups working on various portions of negotiated text. For instance, under AWG-LCA there are contact groups for shared vision, mitigation, finance, adaptation, and numerous others. While these are impossible for any one smaller country to keep track of (let alone any one person), the chair of the AWG-LCA said explicitly that mitigation and finance were the areas that were, not surprisingly, particularly difficult to negotiate.
At the same time as the negotiations on one end of the Bella Center, there are multiple side events, demonstrations, exhibits, press briefings, and interviews happening throughout the conference hall and throughout Copenhagen.
There are basically five possible outcomes from this conference (as I can see). First, each track develops a new legally binding agreement for post-2012. Second, the two tracks are merged, and a new inclusive legally binding protocol is created. Third, a legally binding agreement for post-2012 under the KP track is achieved, and a decision is reached for LCA. Fourth, decisions are reached for each track, neither of which are legally binding (but still a positive step in the right direction. Fifth – nothing.
With a lot of pressure from heads of state and citizens around the world – and the projected impacts of failure - I believe there will be many long nights and early mornings ahead to reach an agreement.
-posted by Adina Abeles 
